An interactive expected-value calculator with Monte Carlo simulation, based on
niplav's cost-benefit analysis.
Enter your beliefs below. The model assumes you sign up now.
Mean value in simulations
$0
Median$0
5th$0
95th$0
P(+)0%
You
Current age25
Costs
Annual cost = Alcor dues (age x $15/yr) + life insurance premium. If people stop dying from aging, you only lost the premiums paid.
Preservation face value$230,000
Whole body: $200k + $20k CMS waiver + $10k international = $230k. Neuro: $80k + $20k + $10k = $110k. US/Canada members save the $10k surcharge. CMS waiver avoids $200/yr standby fee.
Insurance typeWhole life
Term length (years)54
Defaults to years until median LEV. Cheaper, but lapses if you outlive the term.
Computed annual cost$0
Revival
Most negative futures don't lead to revival. Conditioning on revival skews toward better worlds.
P(revival succeeds)5%
Geometric mean of literature: ~13%. Metaculus: ~2-5%. Merkle: >85% conditional on nanotech + good preservation.
P(preserved | attempt made)90%
Conditional on an attempt being made. If not, the insurance payout (or its unused portion) can be directed elsewhere.
Longevity Escape Velocity
After LEV, death from aging is negligible. If you survive to LEV, cryonics had no value and you only lost the premiums paid. Drag the handles to shape your belief.
Life after revival
How long and how good? Your estimate of years already incorporates personal risk (accidents, etc.). Ongoing extinction risk is handled separately below.
Value of a future life-year$50,000
De facto standard: ~$50k/QALY. In a wealthier future you would likely assign more.
Annual time discount0.1%
Discounts future years. Years frozen are skipped. 0% = no discounting.
Annual quality improvement0.1%
Annual increase in the value of a life-year after revival. Life quality likely improves while you are frozen, which this does not account for.
Existential risk
Flows into: (1) you die in extinction before signup, (2) humanity goes extinct while you're frozen, (3) ongoing extinction risk shortens post-revival life.
P(extinction by 2100)16.5%
Post-2100 annual extinction rate0.002%
Log scale. Ongoing annual probability after this century.
Distribution of outcomes (log scale, 5,000 samples)
Running simulation...
Decomposition (point estimate)
Uses distribution medians. The mean value in simulations above samples around these with uncertainty and will differ.