Betting Disclaimer

While I might be wrong, very often, I'm not. I usually win the bets that I make.

After losing bets with me, some people have looked back and expressed regret about making them, including because they could have updated based on my confidence.

Important Notes:

  • You do not have to make the bet
  • Only bet money/other things that you're completely comfortable losing
  • If you don't feel comfortable making the bet, don't make the bet and instead think about why your map of reality makes you uncomfortable about this bet
  • No, seriously! If you're not entirely comfortable, make a very simple, but powerful move of not making the bet
  • If you lose, use this to improve your epistemics; think about what you can do better next time
  • If you lose, consider it in the spirit of a donation. It's better than Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, because I'm not destroying the world

Remember: The purpose here is to put our money where our mouths are, as a practice that helps move our beliefs closer to what reality is.

"What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn't make it worse. Not being open about it doesn't make it go away. And because it's true, it is what is there to be interacted with. Anything untrue isn't there to be lived. People can stand what is true, for they are already enduring it."